Study shows great potential: Switching to vaping could save Germany up to 75 billion euros in healthcare

• Until to 75 billions euro Savings in the healthcare between 2026 and 2040 possible
• Even a moderate switch could reduce tobacco-related illnesses by 8-10 percent and save up to 3 billion euros per year.
• study shows: The Burn from tobacco – not nicotine – is Main driver smoking-related damages
• Study results support one risk-proportional regulation at at the same time strong Youth protection

Berlin, April 15, 2026 - The switch of smokers from conventional cigarettes to lower-risk alternatives such as Vapes This could significantly reduce the burden of disease and healthcare costs in Germany – with potential savings of up to 75 billion euros.

The study on the potential health and economic impacts of approaches to Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR; Harm Reduction in Tobacco Use) became from HG innovation Limited commissioned and independent of Institute for Growth Opportunities and Innovation (IWCI) in cooperation with the IU International college (IU) carried out.

Based on a health economic microsimulation, conservative assumptions suggest that around €15 billion in direct medical treatment and care costs could be saved between 2026 and 2040, around €48 billion in a realistic scenario, and up to €75 billion in an optimistic scenario. These savings include only direct healthcare costs such as hospital stays, treatments, and care services.

Even a moderate switch shows measurable success

The study concludes that even relatively small changes in behavior – such as the Switching from smoking to vaping – can lead to measurable reductions in both disease burden and costs. “Even under conservative assumptions regarding vaping usage, both the number of smoking-related illnesses and the associated healthcare expenditures decrease. Specifically, the model shows that if 10 percent of smokers switch to vaping or other devices annually over a three-year period, there could be 8 to 10 percent fewer tobacco-related illnesses and direct healthcare costs could decrease by up to 3 billion euros per year,” emphasizes Prof. Dr. Florian Hummel, Rector for On-Campus Degree Programs and Vice Rector at IU International University.

The burning of tobacco – not nicotine – causes the majority of the damage.

The study highlights that the main source of health damage from smoking is the burning of tobacco, not the nicotine The authors emphasize that while nicotine is not harmless, the vast majority of health damage is caused by tobacco combustion and the toxic substances released during this process. "Non-combustion products can significantly reduce exposure to harmful substances for smokers who wish to continue consuming nicotine."“According to the study, international biomarker data shows that switching to e-cigarettes reduces key pollutants by 60 to 95 percent,” explains Dr. h.c. (IIC, KH) Dominic Multerer, Study Director and Managing Director of the Institute for Growth Opportunities and Innovation (IWCI).

This scientific distinction, that products without combustion significantly reduce exposure to pollutants can reduce It is widely supported by independent experts and is gaining increasing importance for evidence-based policy decisions. In this context, it is explained Prof. Dr. Bernhard-Michael Mayer, pharmacologist and former head of the Institute of Pharmacology and Toxicology at the University of Graz: “The central message is: vaping instead of smoking. The greatest health risks arise from combustion products – many of these risks are eliminated with vaping. Nicotine is not harmless, but overall vaping is significantly less harmful than smoking.”

Harm reduction complements smoking cessation

The study underscores that the primary goal of prevention remains complete abstinence from smoking. Harm reduction does not replace quitting smoking, but rather offers a complementary approach for adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke. Despite decades of tobacco control measures, millions of adults in Germany continue to smoke, highlighting the need for pragmatic approaches to risk reduction. Tobacco harm reduction specifically targets this group and offers a path to harm reduction when immediate cessation is not achievable.

Regulation should be risk-proportional.

The study calls for a risk-proportional regulation, which distinguishes between conventional cigarettes and non-combustible products, and warns that overly restrictive measures could lead to unintended shifts in behavior. It advocates for a risk-based tobacco and nicotine policy with a clear differentiation between product categories, binding quality standards, transparency regarding ingredients, and controlled market mechanisms.

At the same time, the study emphasizes that effective youth protection and tobacco harm reduction are not mutually exclusive.

International examples such as Great Britain, Sweden and Japan show that strictly regulated markets with clear protective measures can be accompanied by declining smoking rates.

This balanced approach – harm reduction for adult smokers while strictly protecting minors – is also supported by independent experts. Prof. Dr. Bernd Werse, Professor of Social Work with a focus on social science addiction research at Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences and head of the Institute for Addiction Research (ISFF), explains: “Vapes are significantly less harmful than conventional tobacco products – especially for adult smokers who cannot or do not want to quit. At the same time, the protection of young people must be consistently taken into account.”